Economic Outlook
Passport Power
The Friday File: The nation with the passport that allows entry into the most destinations visa-free is Singapore at 193 out of a possible 227. South Korea follows at 190, then Japan at 189. The US is tied for 37th spot with Malaysia at 180. By comparison, Canada is in 32nd spot, and the UK is in 26th with visa-free entry into 184 destinations. Afghanistan is last at 24.
States' Status
A recent study trying to mimic what the Business Cycle Dating Committee looks at when determining if the economy is in recession finds 22 states, representing 33% of GDP, in or at high risk of recession. Their problems are due to weak immigration, rising tariffs and federal job cuts, and are more generally exposed to agriculture/manufacturing. 12 states including CA/NY are neither growing or contracting, and 16 including FL/TX are growing.
Job Jeopardy
While we haven’t seen large numbers of layoffs, monthly hiring is at its lowest level since 6/15, and at the lowest percentage since 3/13. Similarly, job postings on Indeed.com are at their lowest since 2/21. When workers are asked if jobs are “plentiful” or if they’re “hard to get”, the Plentiful-Hard to Get gap was +8 points. Pre-Covid it was +40. American workers are rightfully nervous about losing their jobs.
Beijing Battles
While Chinese exports to the US slid 17% during Jan-Sept, they increased 6.1% elsewhere. However, China still faces serious economic issues amid hardball US trade talks. Q-o-Q 25Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%, but was 5.2% in 25Q2, and 5.4% in 24Q4 and 25Q1. And on a Q-o-Q sequential basis, growth decelerated to 3.5% in 25Q3 from 4.3% in 25Q2, 5.6% in 25Q1 and 6% in 24Q4. China’s slowing and decoupling.
