Builder Sentiment at Third Lowest Since 2012
In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The index has only posted a lower reading twice since 2012 – in December 2022 when it hit 31 and in April 2020 at the start of the pandemic when it plunged more than 40 points to 30.
“Buyers are increasingly moving to the sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates and tariff and economic uncertainty,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “To help address affordability concerns and bring hesitant buyers off the fence, a growing number of builders are moving to cut prices.”
Economic Outlook
Repetitive Revisions
On 3/7/25, February net employment was initially reported as 151,000, but after multiple revisions the real number is 102,000. On 4/4/25, March employment was reported as 228,000, but now we know the number is 120,000. On 5/2/25, April employment was said to be 177,000, but it’s already been revised down to 147,000, and another revision is due next month. On 6/6/25, May employment was pegged at 139,000, yeah right.
Fed Focus
To the surprise of nobody, the Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting. Powell deftly suggested that the Fed could adjust to what comes next, while simultaneously admitting it has no idea what to expect. As for the dot plots suggesting two 25bps rate cuts, ignore them. In this environment of extreme policy uncertainty, they’re meaningless. The Fed clearly feels the labor market hasn’t sufficiently buckled to warrant rate relief.
An Appreciation Of FedEx Founder
By Jens Flottau June 2025
On that first day, when FedEx launched cargo flights in 1973, the small airline transported 186 packages to 24 cities. On an average day in 2025, the airline flies around 17 million shipments.
In between those dates are some lows—the small airline almost ran out of money more than once in the early years—and many highs. Because of the initial crises, two half-sisters of Smith once sued him in the 1970s over concerns that the significant family inheritance created by his father would vanish in his attempts to establish this new airline with its strange business model. But over time, it was exactly that model that not only made Smith himself a multibillionaire but transformed the airline industry: it has since been called hub and spoke.