ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is an internationally acclaimed economist and public speaker specializing in making economics fun, relevant and educational. Dr. Eisenberg earned a B.A. in economics with first class honors from McGill University in Montreal, as well as a Master and Ph.D. in public administration from Syracuse University. Eisenberg is the Chief Economist for GraphsandLaughs, LLC, a Miami-based economic consultancy that serves a variety of clients across the United States. He writes a syndicated column and authors a daily 70-word commentary on the economy that is available at www.econ70.com.
Flatlining Flats
October existing home sales were 4.1 million annualized units, essentially unchanged from September’s 4.05 million units. For some perspective, this is the same activity level that prevailed in 10/08, during the middle of the Housing Bust and a month after Lehman Brothers collapsed. It’s about 20% lower than the worst month in 2001 during the dotcom bust, and lightyears away from the 2021 peak of 6.6 million. The recovery waits.
Fed Figures
Unsurprisingly, the Fed lowered rates by 25bps because ongoing labor market deterioration concerns more members of the Fed than the elevated inflation levels. Despite heated rhetoric about strong reluctance to cut more, like what was said in October, they’ll cut more. As for buying T-bills, don’t confuse it with QE, that requires buying long bonds. Substantially more data will be available by the next meeting, which could meaningfully change policy.
Penny Pincher
On 11/12/25, the last US penny was minted. The Mint reported $85.3 million lost on the nearly 3.2 billion pennies it produced at a cost of 3.69 cents each. The present value of the savings to taxpayers is $2.1 billion. However, due to a preponderance of cash transactions ending in 8 and 9, the loss of the penny introduces a small net “rounding up tax” of about $6 million/year.
Powell Persuasion
Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, was 2.8% Y-o-Y in September (yes September), down from August’s 2.9%. Better yet, core PCE came in at 0.2% M-o-M for the fourth time in five months. The three-month trend is running at a benign 2.2% annualized pace. Expect a Fed cut. However, getting the cut past a hesitant/averse board may require Powell to underline reluctance to soon cut again, a hawkish stance.
Big Billionaires
I’m sure you will be thrilled to know that the number of global billionaires now totals 2,900, a rise of 287 from last year, the second biggest jump ever. Their collective wealth is now $15.8 trillion, up from a paltry $14 trillion last year. Of the new billionaires, 196 are self-made and 91 (very lucky people) inherited their new status, not to mention $298 billion.
