New Home Sales Rise in September
Home buyers moved off the sidelines in September following the Federal Reserve’s recent move to cut interest rates for the first time in four years.Sales of newly built, single-family homes in September increased 4.1% to a 738,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a downwardly revised August number, according to newly released data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The pace of new home sales in September is up 6.3% compared to a year earlier.
“Despite challenging affordability conditions, home builder confidence edged higher in October as they anticipate that mortgage rates will gradually, in an uneven manner, moderate in the coming months,” said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “There is a significant need for additional housing supply, as many prospective home buyers are entering the market.”
“Following the Fed’s actions in September, mortgage rates fell to 6.18%, from 6.5% in August,” said Jing Fu, director of forecasting and analysis for NAHB. “However, new home sales will likely weaken in October due to a recent rise in long-term rates.”
A new home sale occurs when a sales contract is signed, or a deposit is accepted. The home can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction or completed. In addition to adjusting for seasonal effects, the September reading of 738,000 units is the number of homes that would sell if this pace continued for the next 12 months.
New single-family home inventory in September remained elevated at a level of 470,000, up 8.0% compared to a year earlier. This represents a 7.6 months’ supply at the current building pace. Completed for-sale new homes rose to 108,000, the highest level since 2009.
The median new home sale price in September was $426,300, essentially unchanged from a year ago. The Census data reveals a gain for new home sales priced below $300,000, which made up 17% of new home sales in September, compared to 14% a year ago.
Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are up 19.2% in the Midwest, 1.1% in the South and 3.4% in the West. New home sales are down 1.1% in the Northeast.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Elliot EisenbergEconomic & Policy Blog
Tortured Taxation
Increasing personal income tax rates across-the-board by 10% without any income exemptions would raise $221 billion/year in new revenue. With a $100,000/year exemption, this policy would raise $166 billion/year. With a $250,000/year threshold, revenue growth is $90 billion/year, and at Biden/Harris’ $400,000/year threshold, which excludes 95% of all payers, revenues raised are only $71 billion/year. Exempting large portions of the tax base seriously stymies revenue raising, forcing other tax increases.
Data Dissonance
While inflation is barely 2.5% Y-o-Y, unemployment is just 4.1%, and incomes are rising, voters are sour on the economy. Here, I think, is why. Median income in 2023 rose to $80,610, but it’s still below the 2019 $81,210 inflation-adjusted peak. And, sure, overall inflation is low, but Y-o-Y food and energy (things we buy all the time) inflation peaked at 40% in 2022, its worst showing since 1979!
Debt Delinquencies
The latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Finances is slightly worrying as it reports the percentage of households who think they will be unable to meet their debt obligations over the next three months is 14%. This is the highest percentage since 16% in 4/20. The percentage has steadily risen from a low of 10% in 2021 to 12% in 2023, to now 14%. More households continue to struggle.
Election Expenses
Estimate are that $15.9 billion, a new nominal record, will be spent this election cycle. This total includes congressional races, outside money from super-PACs, and money spent by the two presidential campaigns. In real terms, the $15 billion spent during the 2020 cycle will remain tops as it works out to over $18 billion today. Based on the 154.6 million voters in 2020, $15.9 billion works out almost $103/voter.
Puck Prices
The costliest place to watch a hockey game is Toronto, where they haven’t won a Cup since 1967. There it costs a family of four, for tickets, drinks, hot dogs, parking, etc., a staggering US$704, followed by Las Vegas at $677. In NYC, watching the Rangers costs $617. The median is $406. The most affordable location: Miami, where watching the Stanley Cup champions costs, almost inexplicably, $299.
Government Growth
Through the first 11 months of FY24, federal spending rose $392 billion or 7%, while revenues increased by a healthy but smaller 5.5%. Debt service rose by $227 billion and Social Security/Medicare increased by $174 billion. Other categories that bumped up were defense, which increased by $52 billion and veterans’ benefits by $40 billion. Outlays on all remaining programs fell $100 billion. This is why reducing spending is so tough.
Imprecise Indicator
Far from being a leading or coincident economic indicator, the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator. Here’s why. In a downturn, firms first stop posting jobs and then stop hiring. If things worsen, employers will reduce headcount through attrition and then, if possible, furlough workers. Only then will layoffs commence. Thus, by the time the unemployment rate starts significantly rising, as has recently, conditions have already meaningfully deteriorated.
Hefty Helene
While Hurricane Katrina’s inflation-adjusted damage and economic losses exceeded $300 billion, and Ian, Sandy, and Harvey were all about $200 billion, initial estimates, which are likely to rise, put the impact of Hurricane Helene at $150 billion, making it the fourth costliest hurricane in US history. By comparison, Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Debbie, which both touched down earlier this year, are expected to cost about $25 billion each.
Single-Family Starts Trend Higher in September
With the Federal Reserve beginning an easing of monetary policy and builder sentiment improving, single-family starts posted a modest gain in September while multifamily construction continued to weaken because of tight financing and an ongoing rise in completed apartments.Overall housing starts decreased 0.5% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.35 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The September reading of 1.35 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts increased 2.7% to a 1.03 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. On a year-to-date basis, single-family construction is up 10.1%. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, decreased 9.4% to an annualized 327,000 pace. This marks the weakest pace since May.
“Single-family construction increased in September, mirroring NAHB’s survey of builder confidence,” said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “In the long-run, the most effective way to tackle the nation’s housing affordability crisis is to increase the housing supply. And as the election looms, policymakers need to be focused on the supply-side of the market to let builders build.”
“While single-family home building increased in September, higher mortgage interest rates in October are likely to place a damper on growth in next month’s data,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Nonetheless, NAHB is forecasting a gradual, if uneven, decline for mortgage rates in the coming quarters, with corresponding increases for single-family construction. Multifamily construction will remain weak as completions of apartments are elevated.”
On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts are 9.0% higher in the Northeast, 2.0% lower in the Midwest, 4.6% lower in the South and 5.4% lower in the West.
Overall permits decreased 2.9% to a 1.43 million unit annualized rate in September. Single-family permits increased 0.3% to a 970,000 unit rate. Multifamily permits decreased 8.9% to an annualized 458,000 pace. This is the weakest reading since May.Looking at regional data on a year-to-date basis, permits are 0.8% higher in the Northeast, 2.6% higher in the Midwest, 2.2% lower in the South and 5.1% lower in the West.
The number of single-family homes under active construction totaled 642,000 in September. After stabilizing recently, this is down just 4.5% from a year ago. The number of multifamily units under construction declined 3.4% in September to an 842,000 total. This is 16.5% lower than a year ago and is the smallest count since February 2022.
As a sign of the reversal for multifamily construction, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of multifamily construction was 680,000 in September. This was roughly twice the pace of multifamily starts, meaning for every two apartments finishing construction, only one new unit began construction. The pace of multifamily completions was up 41% compared to a year ago.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Younger Households: Lowest Rate Since 2020
Amidst elevated mortgage interest rates and tight housing supply, housing affordability is at a multidecade low. The youngest age group, who are particularly sensitive to mortgage rates, home prices, and the inventory of entry-level homes, saw the largest decline among all age categories.The homeownership rate for those under the age of 35 dropped to 37% in the third quarter of 2024, reaching the lowest level since the first quarter of 2020, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS).
The U.S. homeownership rate held steady at 65.6% in the third quarter of 2024, showing a flat trend over the last three quarters. However, this marks the lowest rate in the last two years. The homeownership rate remains below the 25-year average rate of 66.4%.