A global trade war is underway, causing significant economic and financial market disruptions. As initially announced, the U.S. imposed trade sanctions including a 10% minimum tariff rate on virtually all U.S. trading partners, combined with higher “reciprocal” tariff rates — which were, in fact, taxes on bilateral U.S. goods deficits rather than tied to specific foreign tariff or non-trade-based rules. However, even those rates were four times higher than they should have been, given the equation specified. It appears these higher rates were designed as leverage for negotiations.
As these rates were set to apply on the evening of April 8, financial markets shuddered. The 10-year Treasury rate spiked to 4.5%, alarming investors as a bond market repricing occurred. On April 9, President Trump set a general 90-day pause on the applicable reciprocal rates (leaving in place the 10% baseline tariffs on all countries except for Canada and Mexico), subject to bilateral trade negotiations.
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz provided this economic and housing industry overview in the bi-weekly newsletter Eye On the Economy.
EPAB President's Message
Navigating Economic Headwinds
Industry Faces Challenges
Victor Robles - EPAB President
El Paso's homebuilding sector is currently contending with significant economic pressures, notably elevated interest rates and broader financial uncertainties. These factors are reshaping the construction landscape, influencing both builders and prospective homeowners.
Interest Rates and Housing Affordability
The surge in mortgage interest rates, now averaging around 6.4%, has markedly affected housing affordability in El Paso. This increase translates to higher monthly payments for homebuyers, thereby reducing the pool of qualified purchasers and dampening demand for new homes. Consequently, builders are exercising caution, reassessing project viability in light of these financial constraints.
Executive Message
Improving your membership experience
Tech, Political Representation Lead EPAB Agenda
By Ray Adauto - Executive Vice President, EPAB
New Association Management Platform: NOVI Systems
Our association is evolving to better serve you. We’ve partnered with NOVI Systems, a cutting-edge platform that will streamline administrative functions and enhance your membership experience. This transition will empower you to manage your membership profile, access resources, and engage with the association more effectively. Expect additional details in the coming weeks as we integrate with NOVI. I’m thrilled about this step toward a more connected and efficient future for our association.
Advocating for You in the 89th Texas Legislative Session
The Texas Association of Builders is actively engaged in the 89th Texas Legislative Session, which began in January 2025. Our team is working tirelessly to protect the gains achieved in the 88th session and oppose numerous proposed bills that could hinder builders and developers. As Texas attracts new residents from more regulated states, the political landscape is shifting, requiring increased vigilance to preserve our industry’s interests. I’ve testified at the Capitol on your behalf, often in challenging settings, and I’m reminded of the importance of strong advocacy and strategic alliances.
Our members’ contributions, whether testifying, volunteering, or contacting legislators—are invaluable. Your efforts reinforce that housing is our mission and make membership meaningful. On behalf of the association, thank you for your dedication. To continue this critical work, I encourage you to stay engaged and reach out with any questions or ideas for advocacy.
Together, we’re building a stronger future for Texas housing. Thank you for your continued support.
Mortgage Outlook
Housing Market Stuck until 2026
Help may not be on the way for first-time homebuyers frustrated by high mortgage rates and even higher home prices.
Economists at Bank of America warned this week that the US housing market is “stuck and we are not convinced it will become unstuck” until 2026 — or later.
The bank said home prices will stay high and go even higher. The housing shortage will persist. And mortgage rates may not fall much — even if the Federal Reserve finally delivers long-delayed interest rate cuts.
“It’s been a weird combination. Mortgage rates rose substantially but so did home prices. That typically doesn’t happen,” said Gapen.
Advice for Builders
Rethinking Pricing as Tariffs Hit
Some actionable advice for contractors about reassessing pricing policies
Trump’s election will likely improve demand conditions for construction spending but also include risks based on tariffs, project timing, and completion due to labor and supply implications from policies.
Early themes from builders, remodelers, and contractors indicate optimism from the election outcome partly due to clarity and certainty of administration tone for the next four years but also due to the memory of Trump's first administration’s pro-construction industry perspective. For us, the outlook for the industry includes several upside conditions.
